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Pašreiz BMWPower skatās 228 viesi un 9 reģistrēti lietotāji.
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Tēma: Elektroauto EV un PHEV
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| Mikels | | 10. Feb 2021, 21:23 |
#1761
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|  Kopš: 28. Jan 2011
Ziņojumi: 5442
Braucu ar: cieņu
| Tāda sajūta,ka kaprons ir jaunais Bmwpower vw fans  |  Offline | | |
AV  | | 10. Feb 2021, 21:39 |
#1762
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|  Kopš: 14. May 2002
Ziņojumi: 17410
Braucu ar: 500
| Interesanta Teslas 2020 finansu rezultatu analize
https://karenable.com/ferrari-teslas-2020-results/
Moving on to Tesla, I went through the transcript of Tesla’s earning call twice looking for signs of a car company. There are hard to find. What I did find was a mobile power storage & transport company that is making rapid progress towards full autonomous vehicles. The data Tesla provides in the shareholder deck is quite light compared to its major competitors. The Tesla Earnings Call Webcast was dominated by Elon Musk with Tesla’s CFO, Zach Kirkhorn, and a couple of other executives participating. There were some specific areas & comments that I found interesting:
Full Year Key Results: The key numbers for Tesla in 2020 were 499,550 cars sold, (up 36% vs 2019), Net Revenues (Automotive) of $27.2 billion (+31%), and net profit of $1,994 million (vs. loss of $69 million in 2019). 2020 was the 1st year in its history that Tesla was profitable. Tesla also received $1,580 million in regulatory credits in 2020. Dropping the regulatory credits from the total net profit number it looks like $414 million of net profit came from “true” car sales. Tesla also claimed in the Q4 report summary to have achieved an industry leading operating margin of 6.3% (as reference Ferrari’s is 17.6%).
Market Cap: In his opening statement, Musk made the following comment on how he believes you can justify the current $820 billion valuation: “And I think there is a way, just with back of the on road map to potentially justify it, where if Tesla’s ships, let’s say, hypothetically, $50 billion or $60 billion worth of vehicles, and those vehicles become full self-driving and can be used in robotaxis — used as robotaxis, the utility increases from an average of 12 hours a week to potentially an average of 60 hours a week if they’re capable of serving as robotaxi. So that’s like roughly a five times increase in utility. But let’s — even if you say like, OK, let’s just assume that the car becomes twice as useful as — not five times as useful, but merely twice as useful, that would be a doubling again of the revenue of the company, which is almost entirely gross margin. So it would mean, it would be like if you made $50 million — $50 billion worth of cars, it will be like having $50 million of incremental profit basically from that because it’s just software. So — and the pace you get 20 PE on that, it’s like $1 trillion and the company is still in high-growth mode. So I think there is a way to sort of like justify the valuation of the company where it is using just the cars and nothing else, the cars with FSD (Full Self Drive). And I suspect at least some number of investors are taking that approach. So in conclusion, while 2020 was a turning point for Tesla and in terms of profitability, we believe this is just the beginning.” I will let everyone decipher this for themselves as even after reading it a few times, I am still at a bit of a loss.
And then later in answer to an analyst’s question, Musk further states: “we do think that we can maintain a growth rate in excess of 50% per year for many years to come.” When I looked at Tesla’s recent CAGRs (compounded annual growth rates) they are, last 5 years – 33.8%, most recent 3 years – 13.7%, so the actual growth rate in the automotive business has actually slowed. Using the $50 billion in car sales referenced in the paragraph above and doing a bit of back of the envelop math, at the current levels of operating margin, Tesla would still have a P/E of 664. If Tesla was able to achieve Ferrari type margins, the P/E would drop to 220. Other cutting-edge hardware and subscription software tech companies such as Apple and Microsoft have P/Es of 37 and 36 respectfully. As Tesla matures as a company, this P/E gap to the norm will naturally close. So either the stock price will eventually come back down to earth or Tesla’s profitability will need to increase dramatically.
FSD (Full Self Drive): FSD is discussed extensively in the earnings call. Getting rid of humans actually driving cars seems to be both one of Tesla’s key objectives and a long-term profit center through both the base capability software sales along with on-going updates & subscriptions. The reality is the current regulatory environment is evolving and how quickly and extensively FSD will be allowed is going to vary from country to country. There are also significant cultural and perception hurdles for Tesla to overcome before FSD will achieve wide adoption. In China, which is one of Tesla big bet markets, only 1-2% of customers are opting for FSD capability. I believe the jury is still out on how big an opportunity FSD really is in the near to medium term.
Competition & the Market: Other than a comment that Tesla is the only car to have a 0-60 mph time of under 2 seconds, Competition simply is not mentioned. Market share also isn’t discussed other than a simple statement that Electric Vehicles currently only make up about 1% of the total fleet worldwide. For Tesla to deliver the 50% CAGR Musk claims they can long term, they will need to take significant amount of market share from competitors. How is this working out? Per Forbes – Tesla China & Europe Shares, & Tesla Performance in Europe not so well. The Volkswagen Group (VAG) has recently launched several EVs under the Porsche, Audi, and VW brands that are all selling well. In fact, almost all the major manufacturers are now focusing on the EV market so competition will only intensify. Tesla’s current global market share is approximately 0.8%, In China it is 0.6%, and in the US, 1.4%. As a reference, VAG’s total global market share is around 10.7%. In just the EV market, it has been difficult to find numbers, but it looks like Tesla had 18% of the global EV market in 2020, up 1 point while VAG grew 2 points from a 4% share in 2019 to a 6% share in 2020. If Tesla is going to deliver a 50% CAGR long term, they need to be growing share faster than competition, not at half the rate.
Capacity: In addition to the existing factory in Fremont, California, Telsa opened a new factory in Shanghai in 2020 and will be opening additional factories in Berlin and Texas in 2021. This will give Tesla four global production site with the following annual capacities: Fremont: 600k units, Shanghai: 450k units, Berlin: 500k units, and Texas: 500k units for a total global capacity of 2,050k units by year end 2021. In 2020, Tesla sold just under 500k cars. Assuming Tesla can achieve the targeted 50% CAGR, it will take 3 ½ years before demand catches up with production capacity. If Tesla grows at the 13.7% CAGR they have achieved in the last 3 years, they will be sitting on excess capacity for over a decade, leaving them running at Aston Martin type utilization rates for multiple years.
Humans & Service: I don’t get the feeling Tesla as a company has a particularly high regard for humans, they clearly don’t want us driving, and when it comes to service, they don’t want you calling, please use the app.
Summary
Tesla is the wild west. While I personally can’t get my head around Tesla $820 billion market cap, I know lots of very bright people have lost fortunes betting against Tesla. Can they deliver what they claim? It’s possible but a lot needs to go right, and the playing field is starting to get a lot more crowded. So, is Tesla worth $820 billion? I’m not sure that’s actually the right question. Is Tesla + Elon Musk worth $820 billion? Might be, if you are willing to assign a several hundred billion dollar valuation to Musk’s leadership & vision. Amazon with Bezos is now worth $1,650 billion. On the flip side, if I look at the value another brilliant celebrity CEO had on a company, GE under Jack Welsh was worth approximately $500 billion at its peak, today GE’s market cap is $100 billion.[ Šo ziņu laboja AV, 11 Feb 2021, 08:55:13 ] | | Offline | | |
| smudo | | 10. Feb 2021, 22:36 |
#1763
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|  Kopš: 18. Jan 2015
Ziņojumi: 4192
Braucu ar: 944 turbo & Cayman & 330iX & 540ix
| Man no telefona gruti uzrakstit visu, kas man par to ir sakams, bet isuma, tas kas nav minets teksta un vinu gadaparskata ir fakts, ka Tesla CO2 kompensacijas no citiem razotajiem 2020. nopelnija 1,6miljardi USD. Ja atskaita to summu un ASV subsidijas, tad tesla ari 2020 no auto razosanas stradaja ar lieliem zaudejumiem. Es nemaz nekomentesu to 50% solito auto ienemumu izaugsmi nakamos daudzus gadus, kas vienkarsi nav reali. Bet domaju, ka 2021 Tesla atkal uzradis labus rezultatus, ja TC cena kaps vai kaut vai paliks esosaja limeni bet es nenoliedzu to, ka vini loti daudz iegulda razosanas prcesa attistiba un izstrada daudz inovacijas, ilgtermina ar to var nepietikt, lai kaut vai attali tuvotos investoriem solitajam. | | Offline | | |
| kaprons | | 10. Feb 2021, 22:59 |
#1764
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|  Kopš: 20. Jan 2018
No: Salacgrīva
Ziņojumi: 5248
Braucu ar: Ātrumu, kas nogalina...
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10 Feb 2021, 21:23:35 @Mikels rakstīja:
Tāda sajūta,ka kaprons ir jaunais Bmwpower vw fans
Es būtu pagodināts (pareizais Ariel, Citroen Cactus VS Opel Meriva, zandéles/zeķes) 
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| Fandulis | | 12. Feb 2021, 15:19 |
#1765
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| Kopš: 29. Nov 2004
Ziņojumi: 13889
Braucu ar: sipisnīku pi vuškom
| Mums valsts piedalās hibrīdu vai EV pirkšanā? Hibrīdiem kāds gada nodoklis? Kad auto saloni būs ofic vaļā?
Audi prezentācija sūc, kaut ko pastāstīja par klasiskajām līnijām, tanti ar zābakiem fonā, izgāstuvi un viss, kur auto?
Par ko tāda sajūsma? | | Offline | | |
CP17  | | 12. Feb 2021, 15:25 |
#1766
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|  Kopš: 17. Dec 2002
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 17
Braucu ar:
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12 Feb 2021, 15:19:24 @Fandulis rakstīja:
Mums valsts piedalās hibrīdu pirkšanā?
Hibrīdiem kāds gada nodoklis?
Nee
Aprekina tapat ka parastam benzinam | | Offline | | |
| Fandulis | | 12. Feb 2021, 15:28 |
#1767
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| Kopš: 29. Nov 2004
Ziņojumi: 13889
Braucu ar: sipisnīku pi vuškom
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12 Feb 2021, 15:25:21 @CP17 rakstīja:
12 Feb 2021, 15:19:24 @Fandulis rakstīja:
Mums valsts piedalās hibrīdu pirkšanā?
Hibrīdiem kāds gada nodoklis?
Nee
Aprekina tapat ka parastam benzinam
Piderasi  | | Offline | | |
| AV | | 12. Feb 2021, 15:53 |
#1768
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| Kopš: 14. May 2002
Ziņojumi: 17410
Braucu ar: 500
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12 Feb 2021, 15:28:28 @Fandulis rakstīja:
12 Feb 2021, 15:25:21 @CP17 rakstīja:
12 Feb 2021, 15:19:24 @Fandulis rakstīja:
Mums valsts piedalās hibrīdu pirkšanā?
Hibrīdiem kāds gada nodoklis?
Nee
Aprekina tapat ka parastam benzinam
Piderasi
IMHO loti pareizi. Parsvara gan nodoklis tiem ir zemaks, jo zemaki teoretiskie izmesi (kas vairuma gadijumu tapat neatbilst realitatei). | | Offline | | |
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| CP17 | | 12. Feb 2021, 16:07 |
#1769
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| Kopš: 17. Dec 2002
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 17
Braucu ar:
| Jap, hibrids ir tads pats ka visi citi benzini, tas ka var uz elektribas noripot dazhus km nevienu nekrata, apliecibaa degviela vnk benzins, nodokli tie pashi, ari uznjemumu nodoklis  ne zilie nr, ne joslas, ne stavvietas, ne KPFI, nekas, parasts benzinieks [ Šo ziņu laboja CP17, 12 Feb 2021, 16:08:21 ] | | Offline | | |
| ak | | 13. Feb 2021, 07:43 |
#1770
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| Kopš: 24. Jul 2003
Ziņojumi: 277
Braucu ar: LR
| Pluging hibrīdiem mēdz būt 0 nodoklis, bet uz kopējo izmaksu fona ietaupīti 100 eur gadā nav daudz | | Offline | | |
| CP17 | | 13. Feb 2021, 08:35 |
#1771
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| Kopš: 17. Dec 2002
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 17
Braucu ar:
| tu droshvien par shito, dabaa taadi eksistee? un te nav sakara ar hibrid/plug in, tas attiecas ari uz nehibridiem (parastiem iekshdedzes dzineju) auto, ka jau teicu, hibridiem aprekina tapat ka parastiem benziniem.
(4) Transportlīdzekļa ekspluatācijas nodokli par tādu vieglo automobili, kurš aprīkots ar iekšdedzes dzinēju vai pēc savas konstrukcijas aprīkots ar iekšdedzes dzinēju un kā mehānisku dzinējspēku izmanto enerģiju no transportlīdzeklī glabātas elektroenerģijas vai dzinējspēka glabāšanas iekārtas (piemēram, akumulators, kondensators, spararats vai ģenerators) un kurš pirmo reizi reģistrēts pēc 2008. gada 31. decembra, vai kravas automobili ar pilnu masu līdz 3500 kg, kurš pirmo reizi reģistrēts pēc 2011. gada 31. decembra, maksā, piemērojot likmi atkarībā no automobiļa radītā oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzuma gramos (g) uz vienu kilometru (km) saskaņā ar Eiropas jaunā braukšanas cikla metodi:
1) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu līdz 50 g uz vienu km — 0 euro;
2) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 51 g līdz 95 g uz vienu km — 12 euro;
3) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 96 g līdz 115 g uz vienu km — 48 euro;
4) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 116 g līdz 130 g uz vienu km — 84 euro;
5) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 131 g līdz 155 g uz vienu km — 120 euro;
6) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 156 g līdz 175 g uz vienu km — 144 euro;
7) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 176 g līdz 200 g uz vienu km — 168 euro;
automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 201 g līdz 225 g uz vienu km — 216 euro;
9) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 226 g līdz 250 g uz vienu km — 264 euro;
10) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 251 g līdz 275 g uz vienu km — 336 euro;
11) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 276 g līdz 300 g uz vienu km — 408 euro;
12) automobiļiem ar oglekļa dioksīda (CO2) izmešu daudzumu no 301 g līdz 350 g uz vienu km — 552 euro;
[ Šo ziņu laboja CP17, 13 Feb 2021, 09:06:34 ] | | Offline | | |
| CP17 | | 13. Feb 2021, 09:17 |
#1772
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| Kopš: 17. Dec 2002
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 17
Braucu ar:
| pat shitaam blusaam nav mazaak pa 90co2
https://www.nextgreencar.com/emissions/low-emission-cars/hybrid/
edit: ir gan jaa
https://www.transportnottingham.com/driving/ult...y-on-the-market/
pareiz doh, kjip elektriskais bmw i8, tak ar nav nekads elektro, bet hybrid un nav tadu uz zilajiem nr, nepiedomaaju [ Šo ziņu laboja CP17, 13 Feb 2021, 10:37:26 ] | | Offline | | |
| ak | | 14. Feb 2021, 20:50 |
#1773
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| Kopš: 24. Jul 2003
Ziņojumi: 277
Braucu ar: LR
| Passat GTE gada nodoklis ir 0. Gan jau citiem plugin hibrīdiem ir 0. Vienīgi ar tilo nobraukt solītis 50km uz elektrību var varbūt vasarā. Citos gada laikos ir bezcerīgi. Patēriņš ir lielāks kā ekektro auto un brauc tā kā iekšdedzes, nevis elektro. | | Offline | | |
| CP17 | | 14. Feb 2021, 21:10 |
#1774
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| Kopš: 17. Dec 2002
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 17
Braucu ar:
| nu tak postu augstak, otrajaa linkaa visiem kam zem 50g ir 0 nodoklis [ Šo ziņu laboja CP17, 14 Feb 2021, 21:11:25 ] | | Offline | | |
| robbielv | | 15. Feb 2021, 08:51 |
#1775
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|  Kopš: 10. Nov 2014
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 107
Braucu ar: plēsoni
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14 Feb 2021, 20:50:46 @ak rakstīja:
Passat GTE gada nodoklis ir 0. Gan jau citiem plugin hibrīdiem ir 0. Vienīgi ar tilo nobraukt solītis 50km uz elektrību var varbūt vasarā. Citos gada laikos ir bezcerīgi. Patēriņš ir lielāks kā ekektro auto un brauc tā kā iekšdedzes, nevis elektro.
Varbūt tāpēc ka GTE ir iekšā DSG ar e-motoru? Nevis 1 gear gearbox
P.S. Vasarā stabili 50+
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| Domeniks | | 15. Feb 2021, 09:14 |
#1776
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|  Kopš: 14. Jun 2004
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 2978
Braucu ar: Toyota
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10 Feb 2021, 22:59:28 @kaprons rakstīja:
10 Feb 2021, 21:23:35 @Mikels rakstīja:
Tāda sajūta,ka kaprons ir jaunais Bmwpower vw fans
Es būtu pagodināts (pareizais Ariel, Citroen Cactus VS Opel Meriva, zandéles/zeķes)
Vwfana tagad ar dīzeļu brauc un KiA Sportage 2020 | | Offline | | |
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| CP17 | | 20. Feb 2021, 21:11 |
#1777
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| Kopš: 17. Dec 2002
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 17
Braucu ar:
|  Spied "Play", lai skatītos video! | | Offline | | |
| Arsmens | | 26. Feb 2021, 14:14 |
#1778
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|  Kopš: 28. Jun 2003
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 13306
Braucu ar: Trim durvīm
| https://uzladets.lv/dartz-freze-nikrob-ev/?utm_...-freze-nikrob-ev | | Offline | | |
| CP17 | | 26. Feb 2021, 21:51 |
#1779
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| Kopš: 17. Dec 2002
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 17
Braucu ar:
| Biju palaidis garam, ka pirmaa? Tesla bija uz Elise bazes
 Spied "Play", lai skatītos video! | | Offline | | |
| DeeCee | | 03. Mar 2021, 18:18 |
#1780
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|  Kopš: 29. Jun 2007
No: Rīga
Ziņojumi: 9264
Braucu ar: Tenere 700 un Procaliber
|  Spied "Play", lai skatītos video! | | Offline | | |
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